The 2025 Ballon d’Or winner may already have been decided as comparing the stats of some of the top candidates rivals one clear favourite.
With just a few games remaining in the 2024/25 season, the debate over who will win the 2025 Ballon d’Or is heating up. Several top-tier stars are in contention, including PSG’s Ousmane Dembélé, Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal and Raphinha, and Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah.
All four have had standout campaigns for their respective clubs, but a closer look at their statistics reveals one clear frontrunner.
Currently, Dembélé is the bookmakers’ favorite for the award — a status bolstered by his pivotal role in Paris Saint-Germain’s successful Ligue 1 campaign and their run to the Champions League final against Inter Milan.
His performances per 90 minutes speak volumes. In 28 league appearances, the French forward has averaged 1.2 goals per 90 minutes, with 1.1 of those being non-penalty goals — an exceptional output by any standard.
In comparison, Salah is averaging 0.8 goals per 90 in the Premier League (0.6 non-penalty), while Raphinha sits at 0.7 goals per 90 in La Liga (0.6 non-penalty). Youngster Lamine Yamal, despite impressing with his creativity, lags behind in goal output with 0.3 non-penalty goals per 90.
Based on these numbers, many are tipping Dembélé as the standout candidate for the 2025 Ballon d’Or — with both team success and individual brilliance on his side.
Dembélé further strengthens his Ballon d’Or case with impressive efficiency stats, boasting a conversion rate of 28.77% and a passing accuracy of 83.32% — both higher than those of his main rivals.
That said, some critics argue that Ligue 1 lacks the overall competitiveness of leagues like the Premier League and La Liga. Paris Saint-Germain’s long-standing dominance — having secured 11 league titles since the 2011/12 season — is often cited as evidence of this disparity.
The football world won’t have to wait long to find out who takes home the prestigious prize. The 2025 Ballon d’Or ceremony will be held at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris on Monday, October 27th.
