LONDON โ Gameweek 6 has redrawn the Premier Leagueโs early-season landscape. Liverpoolโs gritty 2-1 win over Crystal Palace, Manchester Cityโs ruthless 3-0 dismantling of Burnley, and Arsenalโs resilient 1-1 draw at Newcastle have prompted Optaโs supercomputer to release fresh projections for the 2025-26 campaign.
With six matches played, Liverpool lead the title race in the simulations, given a 28.5% chance of retaining their crown. But the margins remain razor-thin: Arsenal (23.5%) and a resurgent Manchester City (19.2%) loom just behind, setting the stage for what could become the most gripping three-way fight since Arsenalโs Invincibles era.
Why Liverpool Lead the Model
Optaโs algorithm, which runs 10,000 season simulations factoring in player form, injuries, and tactics, predicts Liverpool to finish on 73.2 points, edging Arsenal (71.9) and City (69.9). The Redsโ probability has dipped slightly from their pre-season 35.7%, yet their steady start keeps them ahead.
Arne Slotโs integration of record signing Florian Wirtz (ยฃ116m from Bayer Leverkusen) and midfield dynamo Alexis Mac Allister has been seamless. With four wins and a draw from six, plus a statement 3-1 win at Spurs in Gameweek 4, Liverpool look balanced and ruthless.
Mohamed Salah, now 33, is still central with five goals and three assists, while Wirtzโs creativity โ including his assist for Darwin Nรบรฑezโs winner at Selhurst Park โ has added Klopp-era fluidity. At the back, Van Dijk and Konatรฉ have conceded only three goals, the leagueโs stingiest record.
โThe data doesnโt lie,โ Optaโs Simon Gleave explained. โLiverpoolโs xG differential (+8.2) and elite pressing (PPDA of 7.9) show dominance, and with only 12% of remaining games against projected top-six opponents, their schedule helps.โ
Arsenal and City Stay in Touch
Arsenalโs 23.5% chance reflects both consistency and attacking firepower. Viktor Gyรถkeres has scored four goals in four starts, complementing Bukayo Saka. But a shock defeat to Aston Villa and European fatigue nudged their projected total down slightly from last week.
City, meanwhile, are surging back after wobbling. Following back-to-back defeats to Spurs and Brighton, they demolished Burnley thanks to Erling Haalandโs hat-trick โ his seventh goal already โ and new signing Omar Marmoush offering depth. Their title odds, once just 6.4%, have rocketed to 19.2%.
The Battle Below
The supercomputer forecasts a tight race for Champions League football. Chelsea, despite sitting 12th after a 3-1 defeat to Brighton, project to finish 4th on 63.7 points. Aston Villa (60.7 points, 5th) and Newcastle (60.4, 6th) are tipped for Europa League spots, with Palace (7th) and Brighton (8th) just behind.
At the other end, the promoted sides look doomed. Sunderland (20th, 31.5 points), Leeds (19th, 36.3), and Burnley (18th, 36.9) all face relegation probabilities above 45%.
Projected Standings Snapshot
| Position | Team | Avg. Points | Title Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Liverpool | 73.2 | 28.5% |
| 2nd | Arsenal | 71.9 | 23.5% |
| 3rd | Man City | 69.9 | 19.2% |
| 4th | Chelsea | 63.7 | 0.9% |
| 5th | Aston Villa | 60.7 | 5.1% |
| 6th | Newcastle | 60.4 | 4.8% |
| 18th | Burnley | 36.9 | 0% |
| 19th | Leeds | 36.3 | 0% |
| 20th | Sunderland | 31.5 | 0% |
The Road Ahead
Gameweek 7 could swing momentum again, with Liverpool hosting Everton, Arsenal meeting Villa, and City facing Spurs. As Slot remarked after beating Palace: โThe supercomputer is clever, but footballโs heart is louder.โ
For now, Liverpool hold the edge โ but the battle lines for one of the Premier Leagueโs most unpredictable seasons are firmly drawn.
