Liverpool’s chances of beating Manchester City this weekend have been laid out by the Opta supercomputer — and the numbers show just how big a challenge lies ahead.
According to Opta’s pre-match model, which simulated the fixture 10,000 times, Liverpool hold a 27.7% chance of victory at the Etihad. Manchester City, meanwhile, are favoured with a 45.4% chance of winning, while a draw comes in at 26.9%. The figures underline just how tight the margins are between the league’s top sides, with City currently on 19 points and Liverpool just behind on 18.
Despite the prediction leaning in City’s favour, Mohamed Salah enters the match with the opportunity to break yet another record. One more goal or assist would see him surpass Wayne Rooney for the most goal contributions for a single Premier League club. Salah has also proved to be Liverpool’s main weapon against City over the years, having been involved in 15 goals (nine goals, six assists) against Guardiola’s side — more than any other player.
There could be an additional boost in attack, too. Slot has confirmed that Alexander Isak is back in full training after three weeks out and may feature on Sunday, though he warned supporters not to expect him to be fully sharp immediately.
Liverpool arrive at the Etihad with renewed confidence. Their 1–0 Champions League win over Real Madrid showed a level of control reminiscent of peak Anfield nights. Opta’s analysis recorded 2.58 expected goals for Liverpool compared to just 0.45 for Madrid, highlighting a dominant display both offensively and defensively. Virgil van Dijk marshalled a back line that restricted Madrid to only eight shots, while Andy Robertson’s return to fitness provides better balance down the left flank.
Creativity could be the deciding factor, and Florian Wirtz has quietly become one of Liverpool’s key playmakers. His five chances created in one half against Madrid were the most by a Liverpool player in a single half since January — a sign he could be influential again.
So while the data gives Manchester City the edge, Liverpool have been in this position before. Underestimating them has never been wise. With Salah chasing history, Isak returning, and Slot’s side rediscovering their rhythm, the only statistic that will matter on Sunday is the one on the scoreboard.
