BARCELONAFour reasons Barcelona are favorites to beat Real Madrid in El Clasico

Imagine if I told you before the season started that a Spanish team would score so many goals that scorekeepers might refuse to work due to the overwhelming demands. This team would produce Europe’s top goal-scorer, netting 33 goals in their first 10 matches. By late October, they’d have outscored every other team on the continent by eight goals.

You would have taken this in, nodded, and said, “Naturally. Real Madrid won both LaLiga and the Champions League last year, and then they added the best striker in the world! They already had the Ballon d’Or frontrunner, Vinícius Júnior, and now they’ve got Kylian Mbappé! Everyone else is finished.”

You would have been mistaken, though.

In the first 10 games, it’s Barcelona’s offense, not Real Madrid’s, that’s achieving remarkable success in Spain. Madrid is still undefeated and just three points behind their rivals, but they’ve faced challenges. Barcelona has won five league matches by three or more goals, while Madrid has only scored three goals in a match twice this season. The standout attacking team in Spain is clearly not the one featuring Vinícius, Mbappé, and Jude Bellingham.

While there’s still a long way to go this season and Madrid remains the favorite to win LaLiga, it’s clear that Barcelona has been the superior team so far. They are in top form, while Madrid has yet to find their rhythm.

So, how has Barcelona outperformed Madrid? As we approach Saturday’s El Clasico, live on ESPN+, let’s explore the reasons, listed in order of significance.

**Barcelona’s shots are finding the net**

This might seem typical since their stats align closely, but the best teams often outperform their expected goals because they create numerous chances for elite attackers. Most managers leave clubs after a season of unsustainable poor performance, but last season’s struggles didn’t carry over for Xavi Hernandez at Barcelona.

This season, however, Hansi Flick has taken over. In 10 matches, his team has scored 33 goals from an expected goals total of 26.4.

If Barcelona were finishing at the same rate as last season, they would have a goal difference of plus-16. While that would still be the best in the league, it would only slightly surpass Real Madrid’s plus-14 and Atlético Madrid’s plus-10. Instead, Barcelona’s goal difference stands at plus-23.

**Hansi Flick is a significant improvement over Xavi**

It’s no surprise, but it’s important to note: the coach who won the Champions League is a more accomplished manager than one whose previous experience was limited to Al Sadd in Qatar. Xavi wasn’t a bad coach, but like many, he had ideas that didn’t always elevate his players’ performance beyond their natural talent.

Now, Flick has taken the reins, and while his methods can be divisive—especially after his time with Germany, where some labeled him as “naïve”—he has proven to be effective. His teams consistently create numerous chances, but this aggression sometimes led to conceding embarrassing goals. Germany’s early exit from the 2022 World Cup, after losing to Japan, highlighted his coaching flaws.

However, during the group stages of that tournament, Germany generated 10.1 expected goals while conceding only 3.4. The issue was converting that dominance into goals, finishing with just six scored and five conceded. Flick’s struggles with Germany can be attributed to the unpredictable nature of finishing over just three matches.

This isn’t to claim he’s flawless, but in most sports, many coaches tend to be overly cautious, fearing losses more than pursuing victories. Flick is an exception—he actively seeks to overwhelm opponents. His teams press intensely, take numerous shots, and accept that they will concede high-quality chances in return. This approach has clearly benefited Barcelona, as they are pressing more aggressively, controlling more territory, taking more shots, and allowing fewer chances this season.

 

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